NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Devils: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x918b610596bb2362bd5b45bee009befb688b34b16f094da889505740eca50f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Under | 51c | 10,030$5,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,104.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 9,001$4,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590.71 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb72…10debacked Over | 76c | 5,582$4,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 6c | 3,011$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +7.1wins | +0.27per pick | 11cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…f821backed Under | 60c | 2,667$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 49c | 2,645$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.05 | 255 | 52.5%134 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 61c | 1,340$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.54 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 905.54$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.67 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 898.27$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.14 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 49c | 612.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.37 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 51c | 611.03$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.4 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 444$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 429$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.92 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 45c | 246.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 165.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 48c | 163$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 8c | 143.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 69c | 137.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 48c | 132$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 56c | 62.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdb…6560backed Under | 72c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Under | 58c | 40.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Over | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 69c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 51c | 24.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 55c | 18.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Devils: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. DevilsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.