Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb4b8e55164a1eb97183ddc31f62f61d19a3aa1eac1c260f0cda742096024358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 785.36$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.33 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 667.78$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.91 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 469.33$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.72 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 272.98$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.09 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97b…23c7backed Over | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 56c | 155.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 28c | 109.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Over | 66c | 107.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…62cebacked Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 75c | 99.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 70c | 95.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 77.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 73.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…cac7backed Over | 69c | 69.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 23c | 66.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 71c | 55.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 48c | 39.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 35.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 32.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 56c | 31.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…5c16backed Over | 66c | 28.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.