College Football · resolved market
Will Kansas St. beat Arizona?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb59914d45a234882b058bed8a09ad7859f4ed3cd3bc678231823dafb69bdcb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas St.of Kansas St., Arizona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Arizona | 29c | 3,755$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.43 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Kansas St. | 71c | 3,185$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.89 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Kansas St. | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Kansas St. | 70c | 991.41$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.42 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Arizona | 30c | 895.7$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.71 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Arizona | 31c | 871.86$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.86 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Arizona | 2c | 732.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked Arizona | 30c | 666.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…4b12backed Arizona | 15c | 471.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Arizona | 29c | 375.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Kansas St. | 72c | 299.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Kansas St. | 80c | 279.8$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Kansas St. | 59c | 250$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed Kansas St. | 70c | 214.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arizona | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Arizona | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Arizona | 30c | 178.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Kansas St. | 67c | 151.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…d15ebacked Arizona | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Arizona | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Arizona | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Kansas St. | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Arizona | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Arizona | 28c | 81.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Arizona | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed Arizona | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Kansas St. | 71c | 57.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Arizona | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Kansas St. | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…e34ebacked Arizona | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Kansas St. | 69c | 47.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Kansas St. | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed Kansas St. | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kansas St. beat Arizona?this page
- Will Kansas St. win by 8 or more points?Yes won
- Will there be 60 or more combined points scored?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.