College Football · resolved market
Will Kansas St. win by 8 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6bdd872b2bf4358580ec48e08a49ad6e6d17a91009e47afe1b9b844c38ba11d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed No | 56c | 2,012$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.72 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 54c | 1,322$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 46c | 1,031$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.51 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 44c | 999.51$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.73 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed No | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Yes | 46c | 252.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed Yes | 46c | 108.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…db21backed Yes | 49c | 101.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…a2eebacked No | 54c | 93.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…4a5abacked No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kansas St. win by 8 or more points?this page
- Will Kansas St. beat Arizona?Kansas St. won
- Will there be 60 or more combined points scored?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.