TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,456 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8d6…4af7backed Over0c19,321$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over45c2,438$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.0741149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over43c1,972$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.0565050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under57c1,679$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.771,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over44c1,500$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6555,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under53c1,280$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.166,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over38c1,195$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.562,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over43c1,017$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.221,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Over36c667.78$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.418239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under57c628.34$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.331,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under57c624.47$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.6834452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under57c619.49$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6639351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under57c618.61$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.691,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under57c615.61$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0915753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over44c595.54$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.761,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under57c581.8$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.631,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under55c553.04$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.284,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over45c547.3$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.919,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over42c545.74$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over44c505.83$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.326,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Under55c411.98$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3910548.6%51 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over35c347.12$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.35,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ece…068abacked Under57c346.55$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.542650%13 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa0…aa66backed Under75c327.75$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.25887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick70cpaid+29.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under56c259.04$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.971,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…6b6bbacked Under57c256.37$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.243452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over44c178.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3765549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Under57c154.24$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.768045%36 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73aa…409bbacked Over45c152.79$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.752142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7335…dd65backed Under57c151.97$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.672045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under57c151.79$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6518345.4%83 W · 100 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over45c149$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.562,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Under57c148.42$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.825848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under57c140.77$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0215847.5%75 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under57c138.82$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6924348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under55c117.34$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.836649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under56c96.36$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.46647%31 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over43c91.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.514444.4%64 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under55c79.29$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.641,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Over27c64.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.282722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+85.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Over41c63.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.614731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over46c52.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1920955.5%116 W · 93 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Over44c48.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2618649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under57c42.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3729450.7%149 W · 145 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bbd…98f2backed Over44c40.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0418751.3%96 W · 91 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8040…5c8abacked Over45c39.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.963447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Over44c36.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0413439.6%53 W · 81 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under61c35.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7525452%132 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under56c34.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.370455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Over43c32.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1939948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over44c31.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7921847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe777…c734backed Under61c30.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.863363.6%21 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over44c30.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.291,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under56c28.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.426440.6%26 W · 38 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under64c24.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8826553.2%141 W · 124 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over44c23.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5435240.3%142 W · 210 L-23.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over45c23.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.449250%46 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Under57c21.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0431046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…10d9backed Under56c19.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5735547.3%168 W · 187 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under55c18.24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1919452.6%102 W · 92 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.