MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc98264a5f4b01376e5fa3561ea9de8b38b2233080f5399dbbd775750c53a6f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 51c | 12,019$6,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,130.03 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 10,025$5,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,341.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 58c | 2,476$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 41c | 1,262$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.36 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 41c | 1,260$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.78 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 883.84$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.11 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 41c | 833.03$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.54 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 725.25$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.89 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 536.87$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 471.06$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.64 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 434.52$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 60c | 431.23$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 60c | 428.81$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 51c | 424.06$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.18 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678f…74b7backed Over | 54c | 369.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 341.15$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 226.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 41c | 136.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 24c | 123.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 61c | 123.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 45c | 112.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0d…712dbacked Over | 54c | 73.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 41c | 70.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 43c | 65.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 57c | 63.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed Over | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 52c | 42.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 47c | 36.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Over | 40c | 34.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…e980backed Under | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 46c | 29.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 42c | 28.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 45c | 26.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 64c | 24.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Under | 53c | 22.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 49c | 21.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 51c | 21.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 48c | 20.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 50c | 20.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 50c | 20.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.