MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa10f124ea996a7fa05d018fd0b27152aa57681809a3a450a2c6cc8efabf174b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 3,081$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.73 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 2,995$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.33 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 2,661$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.15 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 2,449$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 952.05$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.07 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 450.18$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.08 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 277.13$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 267.14$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 236.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 218.25$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 211.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…b352backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 161.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 109.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 102.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 97.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 76.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 50.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…5b82backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 46.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 42.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 39.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 36.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.