Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Semenistaja vs Kraus
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbba22f829acafc9e82b1d1db865b9327dbf56875c1ab5d2c17de444d1d466d2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Semenistajaof Semenistaja, Kraus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Semenistaja | 54c | 1,697$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.86 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kraus | 48c | 1,150$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.1 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Semenistaja | 31c | 388$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.72 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Kraus | 69c | 388$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.72 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Kraus | 48c | 308.33$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Kraus | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Semenistaja | 77c | 188.63$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Kraus | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kraus | 34c | 112$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Semenistaja | 60c | 84.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Semenistaja | 32c | 59.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Semenistaja | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Semenistaja | 79c | 36.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Kraus | 51c | 35.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kraus | 45c | 22.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Kraus | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed Kraus | 66c | 21.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Semenistaja vs Krausthis page
- Hamburg European Open: Darja Semenistaja vs Sinja KrausSinja Kraus won
- Semenistaja vs. Kraus: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Semenistaja vs. Kraus: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Semenistaja vs KrausKraus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.