Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe31009e9bad8970f4d9ffc401a67eaeb30baef3dc6a718eb29ce4f392b25d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Natus Vincere | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Natus Vincere | 6c | 846.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 12cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37db…dff4backed FUT Esports | 51c | 432.69$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.02 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…abf3backed FUT Esports | 50c | 209.82$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Natus Vincere | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 172$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 148.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed FUT Esports | 76c | 118.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 418 | 35.6%149 W · 269 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Natus Vincere | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…e505backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 79.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 51.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | +15.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 420 | 51.9%218 W · 202 L | -21.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 241 | 40.2%97 W · 144 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 31.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -18.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2FUT Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.