TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c3f…75cfbacked FUT Esports52c36,147$18,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,470.6713651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed FUT Esports52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,60025554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FUT Esports53c15,016$7,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,131.0752155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Natus Vincere48c15,000$7,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,198.828955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Natus Vincere48c15,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.975358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x249a…52e5backed Natus Vincere47c12,800$6,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,015.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Natus Vincere46c5,608$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.9133942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Natus Vincere49c4,500$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20519860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Natus Vincere48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9203650%18 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16af…2cf0backed Natus Vincere47c3,907$1,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Natus Vincere43c3,523$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Natus Vincere48c3,003$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.944438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere49c2,989$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.9593148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed FUT Esports53c2,431$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.355349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed FUT Esports54c1,791$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.748934.8%31 W · 58 L-11.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x12f0…6e95backed FUT Esports54c1,772$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.981963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed FUT Esports53c1,623$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.0723151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Natus Vincere49c1,616$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.9711258%65 W · 47 L+12.8wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Natus Vincere48c1,524$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.4111255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Natus Vincere48c1,370$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.8231153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed Natus Vincere47c1,240$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick53cpaid-67.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed FUT Esports51c1,113$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.513345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Natus Vincere48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48026450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Natus Vincere48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48016952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed Natus Vincere47c999.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.993565.7%23 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked Natus Vincere17c997.17$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb92a…f51cbacked Natus Vincere48c891.38$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.861040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Natus Vincere45c861.45$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.6836138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked Natus Vincere48c846.81$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.47475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Natus Vincere48c814.62$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.0224846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked FUT Esports77c793.46$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.994353.5%23 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed FUT Esports52c770$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.610551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Natus Vincere25c755.7$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.66732.8%22 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4a2…6fc8backed Natus Vincere46c735.57$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.361540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…e019backed Natus Vincere49c700$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3433357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Natus Vincere48c651.57$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.747445.9%34 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9f…30b1backed Natus Vincere48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Natus Vincere46c545.01$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.714032.9%46 W · 94 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Natus Vincere6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305831%18 W · 40 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere47c499.97$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9913642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FUT Esports64c475.34$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.481,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Natus Vincere47c394$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6516345.4%74 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x135d…56c0backed FUT Esports53c368.47$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.181353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed FUT Esports52c365.77$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.576040%24 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked FUT Esports58c338.75$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.4577744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37db…dff4backed FUT Esports54c333.41$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.378050%40 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Natus Vincere48c310.11$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.852751.9%14 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked FUT Esports51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1473148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Natus Vincere48c288.31$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3925556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked FUT Esports49c279.94$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.473423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed FUT Esports66c263.89$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5842540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed FUT Esports52c259.62$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6233346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FUT Esports51c255$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9657151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed FUT Esports54c238.89$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8934253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed FUT Esports50c235.83$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7319337.8%73 W · 120 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78b2…90c3backed FUT Esports49c233$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.821428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Natus Vincere47c222.09$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5127145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed Natus Vincere49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked FUT Esports52c202.75$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9115842.4%67 W · 91 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Natus Vincere47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked FUT Esports54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924531.1%14 W · 31 L-9.8wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed FUT Esports66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686725.4%17 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed FUT Esports53c198.72$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9145250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked FUT Esports53c189.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4914534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed FUT Esports53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.686446.9%30 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed FUT Esports54c176.83$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3443059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Natus Vincere48c160.07$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.836251.6%32 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere47c160$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.260154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Natus Vincere32c157.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017332.4%56 W · 117 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Natus Vincere47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.59746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed FUT Esports76c128$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1499846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked FUT Esports53c120$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.433753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Natus Vincere46c118$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.286344.4%28 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Natus Vincere48c115.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.054156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…70d9backed FUT Esports54c111.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Natus Vincere16c106.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8915833.5%53 W · 105 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed FUT Esports52c105$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.423055.7%128 W · 102 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf043…5433backed FUT Esports54c101.85$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed FUT Esports54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4612157%69 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked FUT Esports54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468043.8%35 W · 45 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked FUT Esports73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Natus Vincere47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked FUT Esports54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5962856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed FUT Esports52c88.48$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3463652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Natus Vincere47c85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9556551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb3…9e69backed Natus Vincere48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405350.9%27 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Natus Vincere49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5aa…e292backed FUT Esports53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.61662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fec…7d1cbacked FUT Esports52c69.6$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.411346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Natus Vincere30c66.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dc8…7b89backed FUT Esports53c66.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Natus Vincere48c64.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.878744.8%39 W · 48 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked FUT Esports79c63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4396245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed FUT Esports53c61.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6718948.7%92 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c34…7a99backed Natus Vincere48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Natus Vincere49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Natus Vincere49c59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9119040%76 W · 114 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Natus Vincere47c55.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8554342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Natus Vincere21c54.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4684838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Natus Vincere49c53.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.033148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.