Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: ALT F4 vs Melser Kindergarten (BO3) - VCL Latin America South Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbfde027d98edaf65d128b066545c4398c0bec6de32e1486d93838019cf68178
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Melser Kindergartenof ALT F4, Melser Kindergarten
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,490 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked ALT F4 | 28c | 667.36$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed ALT F4 | 17c | 577.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked ALT F4 | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Melser Kindergarten | 74c | 224.68$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 242 | 50.4%122 W · 120 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked ALT F4 | 15c | 187.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked ALT F4 | 18c | 180$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Melser Kindergarten | 73c | 160.9$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 174 | 63.8%111 W · 63 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked ALT F4 | 15c | 141$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed ALT F4 | 17c | 127$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed ALT F4 | 16c | 122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked ALT F4 | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbb…ced2backed ALT F4 | 17c | 78.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ALT F4 | 23c | 69.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Melser Kindergarten | 79c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ALT F4 | 18c | 63.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…4637backed ALT F4 | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Melser Kindergarten | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 215 | 58.1%125 W · 90 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Melser Kindergarten | 80c | 24.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: ALT F4 vs Melser Kindergarten (BO3) - VCL Latin America South Group Stagethis page
- Valorant: ALT F4 vs Melser Kindergarten - Map 1 WinnerMelser Kindergarten won
- Valorant: ALT F4 vs Melser Kindergarten - Map 2 WinnerMelser Kindergarten won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.