Earnings · resolved market
Will StubHub (STUB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc0b897a00e93e3c1718638d6302e6594b87f2b6890ba4556da537a53adbe2d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,660 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 62c | 546.66$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.79 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 10c | 432.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffaf…64c6backed Yes | 38c | 280$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 12c | 235.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 33c | 149.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…868cbacked Yes | 43c | 126.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 32c | 119.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 22c | 76.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 24c | 76.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed No | 73c | 41.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x962a…aa6cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 74c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.