South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-09-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc6407f805f91afb7a1f6baf7a756a6e2a53d85a165ad2048a38c4da58aa2467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 21c | 2,688$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.39 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 76c | 1,824$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.78 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…2182backed No | 24c | 999.96$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…529fbacked Yes | 76c | 921.08$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 74c | 810.4$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.9 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 24c | 588.02$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.14 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 78c | 462.4$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 25c | 439.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 26c | 439.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…ab9ebacked Yes | 75c | 399.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 25c | 286.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 75c | 223.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…0d45backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 150.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 23c | 121.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…7f73backed Yes | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…1778backed Yes | 75c | 81.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…7691backed No | 25c | 76.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Yes | 74c | 67.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…5840backed Yes | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…0560backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…3965backed Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 76c | 31.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…da52backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-09-18?this page
- Will CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?No won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.