NHL · resolved market
Blackhawks vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc78e17c3c594bcfdc09f8e87bc199bc603decc4c1e6d081be885371ee80bae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa564…2f28backed Over | 45c | 8,200$3,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,690 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…c048backed Under | 55c | 7,200$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e8…814ebacked Under | 55c | 5,400$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…832ebacked Over | 45c | 3,900$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe46…7793backed Under | 55c | 3,800$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…10dbbacked Over | 45c | 2,900$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c4…ea4dbacked Under | 55c | 2,700$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…d82bbacked Over | 45c | 2,600$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…be35backed Over | 45c | 2,600$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…ff5dbacked Under | 55c | 2,400$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc982…559cbacked Under | 55c | 2,200$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…ebc4backed Over | 45c | 2,200$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 56c | 2,123$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.27 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 52c | 1,405$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.64 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9f…bbc3backed Over | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 845.4$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.84 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…7501backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2d…d44dbacked Under | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…f11ebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 56c | 85.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…9311backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 42c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blackhawks vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Blackhawks vs. LightningBlackhawks won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Blackhawks won
- Spread: Lightning (-2.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.