NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x259560af65b6962b83ae3b1cc8940664d11386da410fbb6fdc9b1f4ccf7ce3e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blackhawksof Lightning, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6a6…7538backed Lightning | 52c | 64,121$33,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,342.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Blackhawks | 54c | 19,772$10,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,081.41 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Lightning | 50c | 18,124$9,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,062 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…bd51backed Blackhawks | 48c | 8,173$3,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,249.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Blackhawks | 48c | 6,398$3,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,301.19 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…42e1backed Blackhawks | 48c | 6,242$2,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,245.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…78b1backed Blackhawks | 48c | 5,705$2,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,966.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…fa60backed Blackhawks | 48c | 4,957$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…effabacked Blackhawks | 48c | 4,871$2,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,532.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c5…2316backed Blackhawks | 48c | 4,564$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,373.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e0…88e3backed Blackhawks | 48c | 3,975$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Lightning | 52c | 3,248$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.43 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…5ee8backed Blackhawks | 48c | 2,931$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…d2b2backed Blackhawks | 48c | 2,887$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lightning | 52c | 2,451$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.52 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4c57backed Blackhawks | 48c | 2,447$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Blackhawks | 48c | 2,211$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.48 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5b…5323backed Blackhawks | 48c | 2,150$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c5…d305backed Blackhawks | 48c | 2,025$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Blackhawks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Lightning | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…26b3backed Blackhawks | 48c | 1,941$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Lightning | 25c | 1,819$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.37 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebeb…b876backed Blackhawks | 48c | 1,529$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Lightning | 52c | 1,526$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.73 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…48fdbacked Blackhawks | 48c | 1,487$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…318cbacked Blackhawks | 48c | 1,400$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…7f66backed Blackhawks | 48c | 1,372$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f90…6469backed Blackhawks | 48c | 1,266$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…809abacked Blackhawks | 48c | 1,161$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Lightning | 51c | 1,092$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.92 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…1bd5backed Blackhawks | 48c | 950$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Lightning | 2c | 861.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Blackhawks | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b5…04a2backed Blackhawks | 48c | 722$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…fed1backed Blackhawks | 48c | 688$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…10d5backed Blackhawks | 48c | 675$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Blackhawks | 47c | 629.67$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.49 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Lightning | 50c | 599.73$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.72 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Lightning | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…6351backed Blackhawks | 48c | 429$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Lightning | 53c | 325$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Lightning | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Lightning | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Blackhawks | 69c | 234$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Lightning | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…c373backed Blackhawks | 48c | 159$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f8…e156backed Lightning | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Blackhawks | 49c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Blackhawks | 47c | 118.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Lightning | 35c | 109$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lightning | 52c | 103$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Lightning | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…9311backed Lightning | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Blackhawks | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f39…3388backed Blackhawks | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Blackhawks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Blackhawks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…892cbacked Blackhawks | 77c | 31.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Lightning | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Lightning | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Blackhawks vs. LightningBlackhawks won
- Blackhawks vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-2.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.