Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc8fef1badd3c729309f63da2580edfd8acceeb2dbcb26a47be088d4d0a3a20b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,360$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 65c | 461.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 424$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 28c | 419$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.09 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 23c | 226.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 26c | 195.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Yes | 26c | 191$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Yes | 26c | 177$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Yes | 26c | 113$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 105.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked No | 74c | 103$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8993…222dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…7deabacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 74c | 51.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 49.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked No | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 72c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-21?Yes won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.