Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c69f53d9c9085d823cf947ddcc5be946b54c93e833539a3cbac926d157fb90d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed No | 29c | 349$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 70c | 282.01$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 33c | 278.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 269.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 263.78$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 40c | 250.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…316bbacked Yes | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 28c | 199$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.87 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes | 57c | 177$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…2874backed Yes | 62c | 120.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked No | 72c | 113$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Yes | 28c | 101$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Yes | 27c | 99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked No | 72c | 96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…0cc5backed Yes | 59c | 67.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…3db8backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…28bcbacked Yes | 68c | 44.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 76c | 41.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked Yes | 74c | 39.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 75c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?No won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.