Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa64c9105ca54603ed2180eb6fafa767a2da1d58934654c388fc9749ab9cdc1b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e84…2b5dbacked No | 53c | 12,333$6,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,796.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdc…e35fbacked Yes | 47c | 12,333$5,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,796.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Yes | 44c | 6,876$3,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 54c | 4,900$2,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.22 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 46c | 2,987$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.25 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 46c | 2,510$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.41 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 55c | 2,500$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 55c | 2,335$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.73 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b3…53b9backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed No | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 47c | 640$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 564.9$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.46 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 54c | 462.01$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.52 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 54c | 444$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 62c | 441.14$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.11 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 70c | 302.37$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.34 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 54c | 278.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.48 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 47c | 274.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 46c | 240.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 238.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 55c | 176.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Yes | 46c | 122$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 33c | 121.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 30c | 75.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…7196backed No | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Yes | 31c | 63.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Yes | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…ca76backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Yes | 47c | 44.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…7253backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…32c3backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed No | 54c | 32.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked No | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed No | 55c | 26.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 55c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.