South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcae3de7bba30e47babdeccff4b1714d62f9a731e07e2b4583c9d44ebf55fee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Bull Bragantinoof Cruzeiro EC, Red Bull Bragantino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Cruzeiro EC | 17c | 3,553$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.54 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Cruzeiro EC | 20c | 1,784$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.62 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Cruzeiro EC | 19c | 545.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 77c | 217.81$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Red Bull Bragantino | 79c | 177.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cruzeiro EC | 30c | 119.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Cruzeiro EC | 14c | 101.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cruzeiro EC | 12c | 98.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 78c | 69.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Red Bull Bragantino | 77c | 66.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Red Bull Bragantino | 77c | 63.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Red Bull Bragantino | 77c | 61.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Red Bull Bragantino | 77c | 53.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cruzeiro EC | 25c | 53.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 74c | 40.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Red Bull Bragantino | 76c | 34.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 78c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Red Bull Bragantino | 78c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Red Bull Bragantino | 75c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.