South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6004fff55a6d3691091adc6ccaa61f8fb69af0d2a4c617455229716ed202d760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 976.7$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 449.84$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.1 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 43c | 400.01$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 24c | 396.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…6c90backed Over | 47c | 245.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 63c | 233.27$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 53c | 224.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 206.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 55c | 194.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 24c | 130.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 24c | 130.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 24c | 130.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…6bb6backed Under | 56c | 121.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 114.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 14c | 97.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Over | 79c | 91.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 90.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 71c | 70.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Over | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 59.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 72c | 56.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 72c | 55.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…ce7fbacked Under | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 43c | 46.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 52c | 39.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 55c | 27.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.