Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcb02946979eb7f315779cc184eeb037e849bb464682ffdce1d551df5ed0cb07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0abc…bd25backed Yes | 0c | 3,613$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 4c | 522.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 494.44$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 46c | 239.72$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 58c | 218.84$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 16c | 185.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 172.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 166.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 157.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 140.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 58c | 129.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 120.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 39c | 108.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 45c | 108$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 45c | 96.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 94.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 91.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 60c | 84.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 19c | 70.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 68.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked No | 52c | 61.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 44c | 53.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 52.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 52.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 50c | 49.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 39c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 43c | 42.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 51c | 38.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 31c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 36c | 36.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…2554backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 56c | 34.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 47c | 30.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 49c | 28.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 47c | 27.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 42c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 76c | 24.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 57c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 22.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 45c | 22.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 48c | 20.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 56c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 54c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 59c | 19.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.