Premier League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace beat Manchester United?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf27deb6a70fe06b255fecc7745a8e3be49be105bd25414e721e0d14d53709f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x651f…c190backed Yes | 33c | 1,508$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 67c | 1,124$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.9 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 66c | 1,003$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.02 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 66c | 257.92$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 67c | 244.87$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed No | 67c | 223.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 33c | 222$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…366cbacked No | 67c | 150.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 32c | 143.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 33c | 123.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…f913backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 34c | 111$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…1a6fbacked No | 68c | 95.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…83b8backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01b9…e864backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…246bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…8c07backed No | 64c | 40.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…847fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…5b3fbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace beat Manchester United?this page
- Will Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Manchester United beat Crystal Palace?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.