Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United beat Crystal Palace?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f37839b1086b3fd694f2d39bec5827ce4b1e8cbcc7ab3fd44c7e578081cc781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 59c | 64,916$38,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,322.22 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 40c | 44,268$17,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,707.4 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 40c | 10,229$4,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.35 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 44c | 8,886$3,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,897.06 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9a…0c21backed Yes | 42c | 4,279$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7724…7e7abacked Yes | 42c | 3,059$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 58c | 3,000$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.91 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 58c | 2,999$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.01 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 41c | 1,433$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.7 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 58c | 1,099$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.93 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Yes | 40c | 1,040$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.96 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 57c | 851.11$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.98 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 40c | 800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 60c | 750$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 43c | 700$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 11c | 595$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 57c | 479$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 59c | 444$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.04 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 27c | 362$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 58c | 355$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 50c | 341.07$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.65 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 41c | 307.14$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…8b52backed Yes | 40c | 248.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x232e…e9fdbacked Yes | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…3808backed No | 62c | 209.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1724…fc81backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 54c | 181.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…f913backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…8979backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…09a9backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…8cefbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…62f7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…a8bcbacked Yes | 42c | 91.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f29…19f0backed Yes | 41c | 90.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…b4b2backed Yes | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 58c | 83.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…4d7dbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…96a1backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…58edbacked Yes | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed Yes | 45c | 55.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 56c | 51.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…3867backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…4efcbacked Yes | 42c | 40.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe020…47fdbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…3df3backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…129dbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f69…d673backed Yes | 40c | 36.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Yes | 45c | 36.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…85d4backed No | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…09d3backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde15…eb64backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351c…2db3backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…086bbacked No | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6836…f2cdbacked Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…9acebacked No | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United beat Crystal Palace?this page
- Will Crystal Palace beat Manchester United?No won
- Will Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.