Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd49fcc58defcc7e6c332fcc667c7b6519ac341f9a9a40b33b91c73528c9a393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 64c | 670.76$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.81 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 34c | 605.01$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.05 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 42c | 519.92$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 68c | 470.59$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.59 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 32c | 349.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…1fdebacked Under | 5c | 326.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 32c | 317.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 239.87$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Over | 80c | 207.77$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 176.48$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c81backed Over | 64c | 173.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 73c | 165.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Under | 15c | 160.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Under | 20c | 142.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Under | 36c | 137.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 35c | 128$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 65c | 128$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 68c | 120.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 80c | 119.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 117.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 14c | 115.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 105.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…9c87backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 72c | 98.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.8wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 86.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 22c | 85.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Over | 58c | 81.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 23c | 75.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 15c | 74.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 48c | 68.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 64.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 61c | 53.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Over | 69c | 42.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 61c | 40.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…8ce8backed Over | 65c | 35.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 69c | 21.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…bc51backed Over | 70c | 14.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.