Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f7cf7b75cc568350286ebf95817cdf3bdee555b6953fea8fe053005d89b43d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Under | 0c | 4,649$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 39c | 1,471$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.58 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 74c | 841.04$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.89 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 69c | 722.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.37 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…a19bbacked Under | 73c | 602.98$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 64c | 540.86$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.8wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 504.95$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.32 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 440.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.24 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 438.41$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.32 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 64c | 408.05$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1afb…e524backed Over | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 385.71$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.25 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 58c | 343.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 23c | 309.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.65 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 23c | 282.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.72 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 60c | 257.44$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 76c | 254$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Over | 52c | 250.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 77c | 224.39$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.78 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 66c | 211.06$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 200.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Under | 45c | 188.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 55c | 181.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 57c | 176.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 79c | 166.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 18c | 166.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 31c | 165.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 67c | 148.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 52c | 116.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 17c | 115.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.42per pick | 14cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9335…0c21backed Under | 78c | 110.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Under | 54c | 98.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 28c | 96.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 77c | 92.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 45c | 87.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 28c | 85.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 83.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Over | 47c | 78.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 80c | 74.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Under | 51c | 68.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 63c | 63.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…cba8backed Over | 29c | 59.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe667…898fbacked Over | 28c | 56.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 47c | 55.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Over | 36c | 50.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 41c | 49.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Under | 36c | 45.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…8ce8backed Under | 70c | 42.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 61c | 40.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 31c | 36.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 75c | 31.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 69c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…9e90backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…b854backed Under | 62c | 24.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 67c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 76c | 22.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.