Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vardan Manukyan vs Dusan Obradovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd54c4dafe2b7188dc9109c51d0ca3afa53929c8ae45086371086e87dca2daf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dusan Obradovicof Vardan Manukyan, Dusan Obradovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Vardan Manukyan | 18c | 3,667$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.9 | 717 | 29.8%214 W · 503 L | -39.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Vardan Manukyan | 15c | 2,659$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Dusan Obradovic | 40c | 255.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…9a38backed Vardan Manukyan | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +56%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Vardan Manukyan | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Vardan Manukyan | 41c | 155.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Vardan Manukyan | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Vardan Manukyan | 36c | 76.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Dusan Obradovic | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Dusan Obradovic | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…ebb1backed Dusan Obradovic | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Vardan Manukyan | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 374 | 60.4%226 W · 148 L | +29.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Dusan Obradovic | 69c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 215 | 72.6%156 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…c455backed Dusan Obradovic | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…6555backed Dusan Obradovic | 79c | 22.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Dusan Obradovic | 79c | 22.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Vardan Manukyan | 52c | 19.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.