College Football · resolved market
Spread: Miami (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd8b69b5c0e33ee9b0e4deeb5226bb4e0c63ab814d63d147996d237230d6fc5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Techof Miami, Virginia Tech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Miami | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,079.99 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Virginia Tech | 49c | 7,358$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Virginia Tech | 48c | 5,658$2,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,941.91 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Virginia Tech | 51c | 5,240$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Miami | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Miami | 49c | 4,434$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.11 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Miami | 51c | 3,273$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.23 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Virginia Tech | 65c | 2,855$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.15 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia Tech | 49c | 1,867$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.95 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Miami | 36c | 1,402$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Miami | 52c | 1,110$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Miami | 35c | 1,090$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.1 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Virginia Tech | 49c | 1,064$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.5 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Miami | 51c | 1,009$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Virginia Tech | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Miami | 48c | 807.5$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.6 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Virginia Tech | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Virginia Tech | 49c | 562$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.62 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Miami | 36c | 443$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Virginia Tech | 52c | 385.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Miami | 51c | 375.88$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Miami | 49c | 292$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.35 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Virginia Tech | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Miami | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Virginia Tech | 49c | 131.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Miami | 33c | 122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Virginia Tech | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Miami | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Virginia Tech | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Miami | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Miami | 46c | 34.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Virginia Tech | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Virginia Tech | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami (-17.5)this page
- Miami vs. Virginia TechMiami won
- Miami vs. Virginia Tech: O/U 49.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.