College Football · resolved market
Western Kentucky vs. Toledo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbda951b6dadfd6fe8977431b5ecd2ededd7a5fb80084c6ae16c9471056344b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledoof Western Kentucky, Toledo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Toledo | 73c | 18,024$13,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,867.06 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Western Kentucky | 27c | 13,333$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.91 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Western Kentucky | 27c | 4,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Western Kentucky | 28c | 2,150$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Toledo | 72c | 1,610$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.85 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Toledo | 68c | 1,483$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.64 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Western Kentucky | 32c | 1,344$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.2 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Western Kentucky | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toledo | 68c | 366$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Toledo | 73c | 223$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Western Kentucky | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Western Kentucky | 27c | 194$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Western Kentucky | 26c | 84.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Western Kentucky | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Toledo | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Western Kentucky | 27c | 63.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Toledo | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Toledo | 71c | 32.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Toledo | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Toledo | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Kentucky vs. Toledothis page
- Spread: Toledo (-7.5)Toledo won
- Western Kentucky vs. Toledo: O/U 58.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.