Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Rider Broncs vs. Siena Saints
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdc3d68ec38e41c3bc401093c7d3de78cdd5d6c554933172494c119156de1b72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Siena Saintsof Rider Broncs, Siena Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Rider Broncs | 17c | 10,873$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.65 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rider Broncs | 16c | 3,283$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.69 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rider Broncs | 22c | 2,284$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.01 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rider Broncs | 25c | 2,253$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.98 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Rider Broncs | 19c | 1,794$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.51 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Rider Broncs | 20c | 1,384$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.69 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rider Broncs | 23c | 1,349$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.02 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Rider Broncs | 22c | 1,107$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.76 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Rider Broncs | 8c | 501.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rider Broncs | 7c | 460.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ebc8backed Rider Broncs | 3c | 419.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Siena Saints | 78c | 417.94$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Rider Broncs | 8c | 412.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Rider Broncs | 10c | 362.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Rider Broncs | 8c | 299.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Siena Saints | 80c | 293.21$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 184 | 39.1%72 W · 112 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Rider Broncs | 8c | 272.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Rider Broncs | 25c | 164.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Rider Broncs | 8c | 149.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Rider Broncs | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Siena Saints | 77c | 130.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…78d9backed Rider Broncs | 9c | 121.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…c859backed Rider Broncs | 11c | 117.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Rider Broncs | 13c | 114.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rider Broncs | 19c | 98.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Rider Broncs | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -12.0wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Siena Saints | 70c | 80.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985f…7a5bbacked Siena Saints | 70c | 69.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ec…f6e4backed Siena Saints | 76c | 63.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda51…ef7fbacked Rider Broncs | 31c | 62.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Siena Saints | 74c | 38.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed Siena Saints | 66c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Siena Saints | 74c | 26.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Siena Saints | 72c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rider Broncs vs. Siena Saintsthis page
- Spread: Siena Saints (-14.5)Siena Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.