Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe05ec7ab63ddbfce3138e0e626707fdcfd36a04bd07c42bac3baea5de122aaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hannover 96of Hannover 96, Holstein Kiel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Hannover 96 | 32c | 777$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.36 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Holstein Kiel | 68c | 256.67$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.69 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Holstein Kiel | 68c | 229.09$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Hannover 96 | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…796ebacked Hannover 96 | 33c | 156.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Holstein Kiel | 42c | 140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Hannover 96 | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…f103backed Holstein Kiel | 67c | 40.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Holstein Kiel | 67c | 40.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Holstein Kiel | 67c | 37.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked Holstein Kiel | 67c | 37.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Holstein Kiel | 68c | 30.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Holstein Kiel | 67c | 22.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)this page
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.