Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1321eddb96e3dff302ea97b654763dc65879783bcf293588dfe02e0268fbfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 9,372$5,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,773.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 38c | 7,499$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,649.38 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 2,368$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.07 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 1,624$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.19 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 39c | 731.46$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.51 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 61c | 382.5$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.87 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…f531backed Over | 37c | 365.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +174%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…08febacked Under | 64c | 365.04$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…0743backed Under | 64c | 361.77$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf5…54b9backed Over | 37c | 361.77$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba7b…b949backed Over | 36c | 315.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…f757backed Under | 65c | 315.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…8033backed Under | 66c | 266.33$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb336…5091backed Over | 34c | 266.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Under | 49c | 254.18$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…33bdbacked Over | 37c | 178.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…f13abacked Under | 64c | 178.31$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 31c | 160.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 33c | 151.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 59c | 125.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 59c | 67.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…26afbacked Over | 39c | 53.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 37c | 41.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 60c | 30.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 25.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 16.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.