Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x615333632a34c050b3b6531c217d14aa78f25a8aa072ae685338e742649f10c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 2,644$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.68 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 71c | 1,310$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 1,219$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.82 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 55c | 783.33$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 627.94$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 624.96$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.41 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 29c | 553.5$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.17 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 57c | 512$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.92 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 332.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Over | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…ea61backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 61.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Over | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2548…b742backed Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.