Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad2ba7e7b208cdeb9c0fdc8e02cb02a9a58c56502d988831df0103f84dda137e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78bf…7300backed No | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 439.84$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.78 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 49c | 366.12$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 213.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed No | 9c | 134.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…e715backed Yes | 53c | 118.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 46c | 105.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed No | 47c | 40.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed No | 47c | 40.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed No | 47c | 37.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.