Tennis · resolved market
Rio Open, Qualification: Elmer Moeller vs Francesco Passaro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe0734018ed52ca5415b074946eef6812f20b7437d58ff5cd0f84ad1c239be69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Passaroof Moeller, Passaro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Passaro | 51c | 4,007$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.9 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Moeller | 50c | 3,801$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.84 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Moeller | 49c | 2,992$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.32 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Passaro | 72c | 2,624$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.68 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Passaro | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Moeller | 45c | 491$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.97 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…54f4backed Passaro | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Passaro | 61c | 169.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Passaro | 61c | 106.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Moeller | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Moeller | 44c | 98.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…d11fbacked Moeller | 44c | 92.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…0fe3backed Moeller | 38c | 78.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…5ce6backed Moeller | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Moeller | 37c | 74.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2b…ba51backed Moeller | 34c | 70.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…5a23backed Moeller | 39c | 63.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Passaro | 63c | 63.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Moeller | 25c | 59.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Passaro | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Passaro | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 689 | 51.1%352 W · 337 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87a…2ee0backed Moeller | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Moeller | 39c | 25.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Passaro | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 284 | 62.3%177 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Passaro | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Passaro | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Passaro | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.