Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe40b03fa14a777ed7099ad18f52a3ace0283a7f14fcb2de4e8e56906701331c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 37c | 8,736$3,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,479.17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 26c | 5,728$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,255.77 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf935…3dd1backed Yes | 40c | 5,210$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 60c | 3,426$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.7 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 59c | 1,292$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 60c | 1,083$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…e4a1backed Yes | 65c | 1,077$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 63c | 670$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.47 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 37c | 561.33$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…83dabacked No | 42c | 504.47$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked No | 42c | 412.88$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 59c | 391.18$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 62c | 382.25$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 64c | 365.68$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 70c | 364.41$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.05 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 61c | 317.11$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 58c | 306.56$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.32 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 37c | 275.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…c4d4backed Yes | 40c | 251.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 64c | 246.92$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 57c | 201.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 60c | 179.11$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda8…a833backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 63c | 134.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 62c | 134.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 39c | 124.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 38c | 115.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 24c | 90.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 57c | 82.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d4…0065backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 64c | 67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…9adfbacked No | 59c | 65.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…1659backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 61c | 62.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 63c | 58.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…c311backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…ba1abacked Yes | 42c | 47.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c6…f769backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bb…21f5backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…7102backed No | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…d803backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 70c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will SC Freiburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.