Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea1498e3c9b7f6326330532cc4ba776d489752e9b55cf81199e1930859c0fb5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 6,516$4,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.86 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 65c | 6,460$4,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.28 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 25c | 4,716$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.7 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 78c | 2,503$1,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.32 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 68c | 1,116$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.88 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…7b47backed Yes | 79c | 486.38$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 473.6$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 473.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Yes | 72c | 331.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 214.77$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 27c | 186.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 54c | 153.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 152$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 71c | 142$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 73c | 115.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…7a30backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…789abacked Yes | 76c | 90.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 72c | 77.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 28c | 72.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 39c | 72.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed Yes | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda8…a833backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 66.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 71c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 73c | 40.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 43c | 37.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 51c | 36.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked Yes | 74c | 32.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…24babacked Yes | 78c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.