Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f10b0e19ec6c899efcf3adef53eb355afe6c51a39b1d8c708168e359bbc834f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 64c | 761.72$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.5 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 571$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Yes | 16c | 490$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 44c | 478.49$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.29 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 23c | 431.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.41 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 68c | 385.72$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.52 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 67c | 348.55$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.18 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 68c | 295.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 33c | 251.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…8590backed Yes | 39c | 212.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 62c | 207$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 66c | 168.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 32c | 159.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 33c | 137.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 66c | 122.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 35c | 119$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 66c | 114.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 26c | 113.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked No | 63c | 105.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 31c | 72.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…04babacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 77c | 70.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 66c | 63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 34c | 30.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 62c | 27.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will SC Freiburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.