Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe45b2d92c1a3fba04f0fc63488c9a648683f41fd62517c33a7a6e7dc24554ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 444.22$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 56c | 400.2$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 365.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 30c | 245.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 41c | 240.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.81 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 231.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 223.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 15c | 129.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 15c | 128.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 120.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 15c | 118.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 58c | 106.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 60c | 106.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 65c | 103.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 31c | 95.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 70c | 93.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 28c | 89.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 77.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 31c | 71.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 66.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 57.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 36c | 55.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 55.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 20c | 53.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 50c | 53.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 52.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…9644backed No | 61c | 51.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 49.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 48.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 48.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 46.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 43.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 43c | 38.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 70c | 38.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 42c | 36.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 36.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 30.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 39c | 29.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 69c | 28.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed Yes | 38c | 26.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 45c | 24.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 63c | 23.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 22.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90d…ce28backed Yes | 61c | 21.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 71c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 63c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 16.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 65c | 15.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e7…5fddbacked No | 71c | 15.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.