MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe57270970be1b3e6b02805dabcf57067a43e89cf7bd36adf6a48289cf51dbe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Pirates, Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pirates | 28c | 6,720$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.27 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Dodgers | 76c | 4,278$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.19 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Pirates | 30c | 3,591$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Dodgers | 65c | 3,443$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.76 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Pirates | 30c | 3,063$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.98 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dodgers | 69c | 1,994$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Dodgers | 70c | 1,938$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.46 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pirates | 29c | 1,694$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.7 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Dodgers | 53c | 1,230$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.62 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dodgers | 71c | 1,156$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.32 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Pirates | 46c | 989.6$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.84 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Dodgers | 71c | 816.49$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.78 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Dodgers | 69c | 793.09$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.3 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Pirates | 29c | 726.15$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.58 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Pirates | 41c | 690$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.9 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Dodgers | 73c | 343.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Dodgers | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pirates | 29c | 244$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Dodgers | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Dodgers | 71c | 97.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Dodgers | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…179dbacked Dodgers | 73c | 62.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Pirates | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 367 | 29.4%108 W · 259 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Dodgers | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Dodgers | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Dodgers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Dodgers | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…d5b2backed Dodgers | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Dodgers | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Dodgers | 72c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.