Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe5c0c741cb96306d3c84aeb41fbd5dda45838ef9204ae219247e3b130ca7f81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 37c | 4,664$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.7 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 23c | 2,197$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 1,415$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.72 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 70c | 1,155$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.9 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 535.88$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 482.42$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.9 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 29c | 422.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 292.01$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 70c | 192.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 30c | 163.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 67c | 155.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 30c | 150.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 50c | 141.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 30c | 114.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 22c | 114$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 90.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 74c | 88.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 71c | 84.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 69c | 77.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f841backed Under | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 30c | 37.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 40c | 29.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Under | 71c | 26.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 71c | 26.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Under | 71c | 26.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 71c | 26.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 25.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 64c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.