Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6c0044b7f1f40bf4feac270623cbdc3cf06be40bd85d713ba15c4a716a4f23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,432$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 847.86$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 533.83$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 287.82$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 254.3$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.27 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 246.8$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 203.58$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 161.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 36c | 159$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 140$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 110.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 107.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 47c | 107.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 100.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 84.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 79.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 77.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 62.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 51c | 61.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 61.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 60.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 59.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 25c | 51.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 51.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 49.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 45.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 66c | 40.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 35c | 36.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 42c | 34.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 51c | 34.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 45c | 34.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 43c | 33.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 32.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 66c | 30.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…9202backed Yes | 34c | 29.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 29.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 45c | 29.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 27.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 51c | 24.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 58c | 17.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.