Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe7450f7678e50c58ff62850d934c125581e5332dcd387411fb1c99f03d86602
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Resilienceof Team Resilience, Cloud Rising
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 3,498$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.2 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 2,600$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 1,408$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…1fb2backed Cloud Rising | 13c | 772.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 539.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cloud Rising | 13c | 443.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Cloud Rising | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 365.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 340.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Cloud Rising | 16c | 304.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Cloud Rising | 9c | 301.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Cloud Rising | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Cloud Rising | 8c | 251$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Cloud Rising | 9c | 226$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Cloud Rising | 6c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Cloud Rising | 9c | 168.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cloud Rising | 11c | 156$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Cloud Rising | 9c | 150.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 145.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbd…27bfbacked Cloud Rising | 11c | 143.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0a…e207backed Cloud Rising | 14c | 139.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…2c2ebacked Cloud Rising | 17c | 98.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5)Team Resilience won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.