Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ae9aa676d3838d6ba819f187a29eb6e163e981d8ba7cb2e55664b03db67d78c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Resilienceof Team Resilience, Cloud Rising
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Cloud Rising | 29c | 12,095$3,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500.71 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Cloud Rising | 1c | 3,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Team Resilience | 77c | 2,923$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.91 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Team Resilience | 76c | 2,651$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.7 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Resilience | 69c | 2,323$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.26 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Team Resilience | 79c | 1,840$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.97 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cloud Rising | 15c | 994.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.79 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Team Resilience | 69c | 764.91$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.91 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Cloud Rising | 27c | 723$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.67 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Team Resilience | 75c | 650$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…b714backed Team Resilience | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Team Resilience | 75c | 490$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Cloud Rising | 47c | 461.33$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.23 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…ed67backed Cloud Rising | 19c | 402.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Resilience | 69c | 389.85$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.86 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Cloud Rising | 23c | 382.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Cloud Rising | 23c | 382.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cloud Rising | 22c | 379.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Cloud Rising | 34c | 341.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Cloud Rising | 15c | 329.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Team Resilience | 68c | 309.4$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Cloud Rising | 15c | 295.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Resilience | 69c | 278.87$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Cloud Rising | 23c | 260.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…7560backed Cloud Rising | 18c | 225.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cloud Rising | 26c | 193.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Team Resilience | 73c | 186.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…b188backed Cloud Rising | 22c | 182.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Resilience | 73c | 176.86$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…1b0fbacked Cloud Rising | 25c | 162.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Team Resilience | 50c | 152.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Team Resilience | 69c | 151.7$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Cloud Rising | 22c | 144.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Cloud Rising | 19c | 143.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Cloud Rising | 12c | 136.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Cloud Rising | 13c | 135$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed Cloud Rising | 14c | 105.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Team Resilience | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Resilience | 73c | 94.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cloud Rising | 27c | 80.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Team Resilience | 76c | 79.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…968bbacked Team Resilience | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Cloud Rising | 27c | 59.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Team Resilience | 70c | 54.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…42a7backed Team Resilience | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Team Resilience | 62c | 48.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c49…c6c2backed Cloud Rising | 30c | 46.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Team Resilience | 62c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked Cloud Rising | 44c | 45.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbf…d227backed Cloud Rising | 27c | 42.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Team Resilience | 76c | 39.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Cloud Rising | 28c | 36.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…5403backed Team Resilience | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Team Resilience | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Team Resilience | 70c | 28.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…d8b8backed Cloud Rising | 40c | 26.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…5607backed Team Resilience | 79c | 22.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…5be7backed Team Resilience | 78c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Team Resilience | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Team Resilience | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Team Resilience | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Resilience won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5)Team Resilience won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.