Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ecd91777657d21866c991d3780a852fce7de62c6a67bdbc94e3e37038e46df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Resilienceof Team Resilience, Cloud Rising
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Cloud Rising | 17c | 20,022$3,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,320.71 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Cloud Rising | 1c | 2,560$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed Team Resilience | 76c | 2,285$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.17 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Resilience | 80c | 1,886$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.08 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cloud Rising | 18c | 1,866$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.71 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud Rising | 18c | 1,851$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cloud Rising | 17c | 1,572$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed Cloud Rising | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Cloud Rising | 15c | 869.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Team Resilience | 77c | 758.8$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Cloud Rising | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…af49backed Team Resilience | 79c | 695$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Cloud Rising | 18c | 628.57$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Cloud Rising | 16c | 441.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Team Resilience | 80c | 361.23$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cloud Rising | 22c | 329.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Cloud Rising | 16c | 316.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…117ebacked Cloud Rising | 20c | 300.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Team Resilience | 77c | 277.67$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Resilience | 79c | 247.05$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Cloud Rising | 19c | 240.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Cloud Rising | 17c | 209.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Resilience | 80c | 166.58$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Resilience | 69c | 164.7$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Resilience | 76c | 156.55$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Cloud Rising | 21c | 148.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Cloud Rising | 20c | 143.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Cloud Rising | 12c | 127.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…be7cbacked Cloud Rising | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cloud Rising | 20c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Team Resilience | 77c | 99.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Resilience | 77c | 88.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Cloud Rising | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Resilience | 75c | 72.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…7560backed Cloud Rising | 15c | 71.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed Cloud Rising | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Team Resilience | 80c | 66.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cloud Rising | 21c | 49.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…ab03backed Team Resilience | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Team Resilience | 67c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Resilience | 80c | 12.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Resilience won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5)Team Resilience won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.