South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe963e47e999feda1142e2f8ae382a432bf9e044051bc0d8f0d40022f1ef7900
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 1c | 4,045$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 34c | 2,578$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.55 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 1,312$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.22 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 44c | 1,236$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.15 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 708.68$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.51 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 3c | 340.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 37c | 329.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.31 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 33c | 303.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.18 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 63c | 297$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 293.77$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…2641backed Under | 31c | 161.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Over | 51c | 125.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 42c | 120.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 63c | 93.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 53c | 76.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 70c | 49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 49c | 46.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Under | 51c | 34.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 41c | 30.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 72c | 27.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 52c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Pachuca (-1.5)CF Pachuca won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)CF Pachuca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.