Tennis · resolved market
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs Martin Krumich
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe9897e8cf5c0b70d932e52e798096d61ee90e9c83af3b354e886226aa6c1314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gustavo Heideof Gustavo Heide, Martin Krumich
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Martin Krumich | 14c | 5,221$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 302 | 25.8%78 W · 224 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Martin Krumich | 30c | 2,919$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.21 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Gustavo Heide | 68c | 2,552$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.64 | 543 | 45.3%246 W · 297 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Martin Krumich | 6c | 1,888$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 1,437$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.34 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Martin Krumich | 8c | 1,305$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Gustavo Heide | 67c | 1,077$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.9 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…edabbacked Martin Krumich | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Martin Krumich | 28c | 460.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 1,425 | 55.1%785 W · 640 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Gustavo Heide | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Martin Krumich | 30c | 402.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Martin Krumich | 23c | 377.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Martin Krumich | 28c | 318.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Gustavo Heide | 79c | 288.83$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…a7dbbacked Martin Krumich | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Gustavo Heide | 79c | 203.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gustavo Heide | 60c | 194.17$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Gustavo Heide | 72c | 191.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…b4b6backed Martin Krumich | 26c | 172.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 185 | 45.4%84 W · 101 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…af63backed Martin Krumich | 23c | 148.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gustavo Heide | 72c | 139$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…5fe1backed Martin Krumich | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Gustavo Heide | 73c | 129.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 855 | 68.3%584 W · 271 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Martin Krumich | 27c | 108.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Gustavo Heide | 78c | 103.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…6f62backed Gustavo Heide | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 560 | 62.5%350 W · 210 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Martin Krumich | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb594…c1a0backed Gustavo Heide | 72c | 92.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 77 | 68.8%53 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Gustavo Heide | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed Martin Krumich | 29c | 84.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 215 | 51.6%111 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Martin Krumich | 30c | 81.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 162 | 58.6%95 W · 67 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Gustavo Heide | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Gustavo Heide | 68c | 67.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Gustavo Heide | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Martin Krumich | 30c | 59.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Gustavo Heide | 78c | 54.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Gustavo Heide | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Gustavo Heide | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…f6cbbacked Martin Krumich | 35c | 34.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Gustavo Heide | 74c | 28.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Gustavo Heide | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 382 | 62.3%238 W · 144 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…bfa7backed Gustavo Heide | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 282 | 65.6%185 W · 97 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…5482backed Gustavo Heide | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…95c4backed Gustavo Heide | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Gustavo Heide | 74c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…d0dfbacked Gustavo Heide | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 172 | 69.2%119 W · 53 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…e46abacked Gustavo Heide | 67c | 23.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 100 | 70%70 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Gustavo Heide | 74c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 540 | 50.4%272 W · 268 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Gustavo Heide | 72c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.