Premier League · resolved market
Bryan Mbeumo: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbea54940abc00cc91b6f34325516c7c6e0809151d727ddcec0d1fb2e150a7733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e9f…0eaebacked Yes | 40c | 1,268$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked No | 60c | 1,244$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…4684backed No | 60c | 607.49$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…cd83backed No | 59c | 500$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81c6…1110backed Yes | 45c | 245.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…c5b7backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833d…ec8ebacked No | 56c | 242.65$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Yes | 42c | 180.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 58c | 115.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 1,179 | 50%590 W · 589 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…3356backed No | 59c | 72.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ea…1139backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…0e11backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 41c | 51.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…a744backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Yes | 39c | 49.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 40c | 47.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Yes | 39c | 47.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…95ddbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6a…6f9fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776a…5349backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +121%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 57c | 19.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bryan Mbeumo: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Bruno Fernandes: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Matheus Cunha: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.