CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeab98ec634ea8dc00f99a0bc44cdd11b6e4c8a149ac5f14a50a9b74d9591c14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THUNDER dOWNUNDERof SemperFi Esports, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SemperFi Esports | 16c | 1,636$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.69 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…681bbacked SemperFi Esports | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…571ebacked SemperFi Esports | 27c | 206.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 76c | 204$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked SemperFi Esports | 24c | 204$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked SemperFi Esports | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed SemperFi Esports | 35c | 191.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…80b5backed SemperFi Esports | 17c | 172.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 64c | 156.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked SemperFi Esports | 18c | 137.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SemperFi Esports | 20c | 135.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SemperFi Esports | 17c | 126.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked SemperFi Esports | 17c | 90.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…7031backed SemperFi Esports | 23c | 80.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 68c | 79.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 309 | 51.5%159 W · 150 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…a5d4backed SemperFi Esports | 20c | 76.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.1wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed SemperFi Esports | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed SemperFi Esports | 20c | 64.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ba…ce43backed SemperFi Esports | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked SemperFi Esports | 32c | 34.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa03…7e11backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 76c | 29.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 79c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 115 | 61.7%71 W · 44 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…0ecdbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 329 | 56.8%187 W · 142 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…bd5ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group Bthis page
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 WinnerTHUNDER dOWNUNDER won
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 WinnerTHUNDER dOWNUNDER won
- Map Handicap: TdU (-1.5) vs SemperFi Esports (+1.5)THUNDER dOWNUNDER won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.