South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeeb79870179e40f882bb4d83b5ee1088946d6df52f63606d3bec982de411040
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 1,865$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.37 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 26c | 1,543$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.75 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 41c | 1,176$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.3 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 1,141$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.76 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 23c | 476.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 329.04$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2569…5d2dbacked Under | 62c | 315.23$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…1532backed Over | 48c | 304.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Under | 56c | 292.08$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 37c | 250.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 39c | 248.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Over | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 151.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 45c | 116.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Over | 59c | 96.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 38c | 81.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 54c | 63.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 60.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…b335backed Over | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Over | 45c | 45.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Under | 56c | 35.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 64c | 29.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 60c | 26.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Under | 51c | 19.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)CA Paranaense won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.