South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac94ba5d459ea815de43ad6824813dad6b71c6a87214b87abee2871d0eb7fb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 38c | 1,903$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.25 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 978.57$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.28 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Over | 60c | 818.57$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.88 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 40c | 791.89$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.81 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Over | 66c | 742.12$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.8 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 57c | 683.65$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.68 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 531.19$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…84d1backed Over | 63c | 433$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 3c | 400$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +483.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…83f9backed Under | 54c | 399.11$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.19 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +221.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 30c | 332.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.41 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 330.76$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.74 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 292.89$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.13 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 72c | 284.04$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.51 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…09aebacked Over | 71c | 276.79$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…b96cbacked Over | 15c | 233$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 221.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.29 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 14c | 216.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.89 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Over | 50c | 215.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 12c | 213.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 207.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed Under | 14c | 203.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 202.38$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 65c | 201.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 46c | 180.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 171.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 72c | 136.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 66c | 112.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 56c | 100.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57bf…0169backed Over | 72c | 81.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 69c | 81.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 64c | 78.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 32c | 74.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 41c | 60.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked Over | 38c | 57.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Under | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 28c | 54.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 68c | 53.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 68c | 53.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 20c | 50.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 297 | 52.9%157 W · 140 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 74c | 50.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 65c | 49.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 25c | 49.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a65…3340backed Over | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 74c | 40.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 79c | 39.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 76c | 36.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 68c | 36.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 28c | 35.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 47c | 34.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 42c | 28.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ec…e764backed Over | 46c | 26.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945b…f3ebbacked Over | 69c | 21.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…3f88backed Over | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb915…8ecebacked Over | 67c | 15.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)CA Paranaense won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.